"NMC 811 the falling Angles"


The NMC 811 disaster “The falling Angles”
Totally misleading battery directions for the sake of major players not to lose face and money,

I just returned from Singapore, where I was invited speaker for the Argus Media Lithium battery event (28th & 29th of August). It was a great event to meet new mine companies, investors, finance institutions and companies like Bloomberg and other forecasting agents for the EV market potential. 
But in general the entire event still believes in Cobalt and the NMC 811 issue. The most disappointed opinion was from Bloomberg.
I would have expected a company like them to have a more scientific approach than only follow what other state and doing. Being a leading in the market forecast is tough, but being a flower is not an added value at all. The Forecast is totally not based on any scientific data. The alternative to 811 is for E.g. 
·      HV-Spinal LiNi0,5MN1,5O4
·      Lithium Manganese Oxide (LiMn2O4)
·      HV-Spinal LiNi0,5MN1,5O4 (LMNO)
·      Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH)
·      Lithium–manganese oxide spinel (LMO)
·      Layer-structured material (LSM) 
·      Lithiated manganese dioxide (LMD)
·      AlMn2O4 
·      LTO with Nano coating
·      TNO
·      Sodium batteries (to replace Lithium)

The battery target to day is simple, it is all about safety, density and price...... it is very well known that 60% of nickel in a battery should not be exceeded due to the swelling and safety issues and an 80% Nickel content should be considered as a safety issue, risk issue a clear warning sign. There are many literatures available to understand this and still companies like to agree what others are doing…. push for the NMC 811 …. Why are they talking about cost, density and safety and still going the other way and promote 811 ?? Making the battery more expensive and less Stabil does not make any sense to me… even to offer such type does not make sense. Some argue to have a good battery management system, but they have forgotten that they should not need those at first place. Is it a market gimmick to push something, which is totally against any available battery targets today, make it cheap and safe.... ?

in 2007 Nickel prices reached an ultimate high. People told me this will never happened with the EV market.... so why have they not forecasted the increase of Cobalt prices? About 50% of Cobalt today is used in the Battery market. The market went from usd 20.000/ ton up to usd 90.000/ ton in 2018 and now down again to usd 66.000/ton. 

"Notably, Glencore Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg said in December 2017 demand for nickel could reach 400,000 tonnes should electric vehicles reach 10 percent of the global fleet, enough to cause a supply deficit"

Does this mean it is just another price really for people to start speculating and making money ? The battery industry will suffer of price increases and the dream of a cheaper batteries is vanished. The financial speculators are the ones who will make the money and are happy of what they are doing.

Battery failures in China has not been exposed to the media to maintain a fair image and not to create panic and to ensure the growth of the business, so we were told from one Research Company from China. Tesla facing major issues in the battery performance. The battery gets complicated and so the battery management system. Once the battery management system fails the battery can experience the so called thermal runaway and will catch fire. Where is the principle of simplifying ?  The market is driven by parties who have invested and speculated.. 

We should not lose track and focus of the Mission in finding the right batteries in regards of cost, density and safety issues for the battery market. To have an additional Battery management is good but to depend on it is different issue again... I do not want to drive an unsafe battery and knowing I am sitting on a time bomb, waiting for the battery management to fail... would you ?

Manganese is a total forgotten Battery cathode material with super potential in regards of safety, price and density. The industry should push forward to achieve those goals and not just jumping on a 811 NMC battery. 

I would explain this phenomena of still pushing for Cobalt and 811 as a “falling angle”, but still try to keep up and extend its play at today’s market and fool the industry with their forecast. UC Berkeley, Berkeley Lab, Argonne National Lab, MIT, UC Santa Cruz, NanoOne, WildCat and many others clearly stated the new potential trend settings, which are totally neglected in such reports.   

Have all a great weekend.

Cheers
Raymond Malcolm Oei

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